ETS the acid test for Turnbull
The ETS strategy is far from settled and presents the biggest challenges for Turnbull.
The official position of the Coalition, the grounds on which it voted against the government's Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme the first time in the Senate, is that Australia should not legislate an emissions trading scheme with targets and carbon prices until we know what the position of the world's three biggest greenhouse gas emitters - China, India and the US - is after the UN conference in Copenhagen in December.
But the reality is, and Turnbull's preferred position is, that the Coalition should work on amendments to correct a "flawed scheme", have them accepted and then pass the CPRS bill. Turnbull, who believes in an ETS, would then embrace the scheme, avoid a double-dissolution trigger and try to consign the Coalition's politically poisonous legacy on climate change to the same dustbin as WorkChoices.
Turnbull accepts there will be revolts along the way, with Coalition MPs and senators - including all the Nationals and up to four or five Liberals - crossing the floor, but believes he will prevail. If he doesn't, his leadership will be in the same category as Nelson's was and will face the same fate.
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